It was 60 days ago that Morgan Rogers stood on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while the Villa manager admonished him over not reading a penetrating pass. During that period, as the club went six without a win, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were an indicator or the reason for the team's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the sideline response was far more favourable. After the England international curled home his brace-sealing goal to reinstate his side's advantage, Emery discarded his winter coat, opened his arms and bellowed. The team continued to a 10th successive win and despite not winning their initial half-dozen fixtures, find themselves a mere three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Hopefuls?
This is an exceptionally difficult query to answer. The historical record, the perceived status of the club, indicates otherwise. Additionally, their performances haven't been entirely convincing this season, despite the fact the wins have accumulated.
Per statistical analysis, in only two games have Villa had an xG significantly higher than the other team. For a side which has strung together a ten-match winning streak, Villa seem curiously susceptible – but at the moment the margins are going in their favour.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach seems to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent and then rely on their talisman to bail them out with a couple of clinical strikes. This was the case at Leeds, it transpired in London, and again versus Manchester United.
The initial strike originated from a superb shot, arced right inside the upright from a wide position. The follow-up goal acted as a slight scruffier version of his first as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opponents had a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all but one of those fixtures.
A statistical correction could be the most significant challenge the club have to face as the season progresses. The forward, surely, cannot keep on thrashing the football into the net's top corner indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be a different scenario in which, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players may yet rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward may begin to finding the net regularly.
- The winger may rediscover the player he resembled in Germany.
- The defensive duo will eventually regain fitness, bolstering a sometimes shaky defence.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely two months ago, no one envisioned the midfielder as the year closed would be leading a title charge and appearing as an essential Three Lions star.
This remarkable period is to be savoured precisely because it feels so unlikely. When the hero positioned himself before the North End at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he seemed to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. Such periods are rare in football and must be appreciated.
