A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. They writes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
